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Using the Standard Method of Handicapping

You are reading this portion of the Online User's Guide either because you are attempting to learn about our Tipsheets and the methods of handicapping used to produce those tipsheets OR you are using the Standard Method of QuickDog to produce your own handicapping system and want to know how the Standard Method works.

Learning About our Tipsheet Methods

If you are about to download tipsheets, keep in mind that we provide several types of tipsheets for different wagers, so the first thing you will do, regardless of selecting a single track's tipsheet, or a multi-track tipsheet, is to select the type of wager you wish to play.  After that, you will want to know what the difference is between the different QuickDog methods, and to learn about those methods, you can simply click on the links to the left side of this display.  

Links are provided for each of the methods QuickDog uses to produce its tipsheets and these are:  Standard Method, Knife Method, Knife Adapted Method, Morgan Method, and Consensus Method.  If you are only interested in tipsheets at this time, then select a tipsheet and then come back to this page and select the user's guide section which describes that tipsheet's method.  The Standard Method is described below.  To learn about another method click on that method's name on the menu to the left.

Learning About the Standard Handicapping Method of QuickDog

Unlike many other handicapping products, QuickDog has numerous handicapping methods which might be more or less useful at different tracks.  Some of the methods used in QuickDog have been designed by professional handicappers.  We know this because those handicappers provided the methods to us and worked with us to program those methods on a computer.  The first copy of QuickDog we sold in the year 2000 only included 1 handicapping method - just like most other handicapping products available today.

In 2010, at the time of this writing, there are endless numbers of methods available from within QuickDog because we include 5 programmed methods, in addition to additional methods which have been programmed using our "Custom Method Builder".  With today's QuickDog software someone familiar with handicapping can sometimes eliminate the paper calculations they normally perform by creating a Custom Method using QuickDog.

How the Standard Method Works

In this portion of the online user's guide we'll discuss the calculations involved in the Standard Method.  Some users want to know more about the internal workings of our methods, and some don't, so its not critical to understand exactly what a method is doing as long as that method produces winners at your track of interest.  Since QuickDog allows you to test the success of its methods by using historical data, you can quickly see if a method or methods are beneficial with out understanding what the method does.

If you select "Standard Method" from the Menu Bar a display similar to Figure 1 will appear.  This User's Guide section describes what you are looking at when using the Standard Method.  A lot of what is included in this section also applies to every other handicapping method we'll discuss.  So, rather than being repetitive, this section is referenced for each of the handicapping methods defined in this user's guide.

Figure 1 - The Standard Handicapping Method

As a reference point, locate the names of the 8 dogs which are being compared by this method.  Then look to the right of those dogs' names and you'll see labeled columns of numbers calculated by the Standard Method.  Notice the column labeled "AVG_SCORE".  This is the total calculated score for each dog in the race.  Using QuickDog's "Original Scoring" the lower the score the better QuickDog has predicted the dog will perform.  

Before looking at the various calculations QuickDog is using in this method, a general guide is now presented which explains how you can "operate" not only the Standard Method but all the other methods QuickDog has.

Looking at a Dog's History

Let's begin by looking at a dog's past record and it's past race lines.  Click on the Dog whose name is "Four Aces" or Dog 1 on your display.

Figure 2 - Dog in Post 1 - Past Performance Record ("Outings Display")

By clicking on any dog's name, you can quickly display its past running lines and its record based on past outings in the QuickDog database.  Notice these past lines are colored coded, and a legend appears in the lower right hand corner of the display.  By changing the way you setup this race, these colors will change to show you which lines have been used to calculate this dog's final score.  Notice that YELLOW lines - those with the date in YELLOW - are lines used for handicapping.  Those lines in a PALE GRAY date are not used, and you can also get an idea as to why the line is not included by other colors shown within the line.  As you learn to use all the features of QuickDog the color coding will make more sense to you. 

Within this new popup are more buttons which allow you to navigate this display of historical outings.  

To begin with, you can SCRATCH this dog as a contender in the race simply by clicking its name on this display.  When you do, you'll notice the Standard Method display again appears but this time Dog 1 is "scratched" (gray colored).  What you've actually done is scratched out all race lines for this dog, which means QuickDog isn't allowed to calculate the dog's score, so QuickDog automatically places this dog LAST - a score of 10.  By reselecting this dog, so that its record reappears, and clicking on the dog's name again and it will become "unscratched" as a contender.

Now, while looking at the "outings display" of Figure 2 you may "pencil out" any lines that you wish for this dog.  Pencil out simply means scratch out the line - do not use it.  Doing a pencil out will pencil these lines out of a dog's record for all of its future races, so keep this in mind.  To "un-pencil out" a line, simply click on it again.

Note that if you do pencil out a line, the color of that line will change.

To look at another dog's record, us the "DOGS" up/down arrow and to look at more race dates for the same dog use the "LINES" up/down arrows.

If you've penciled out lines but then decide you didn't want to pencil them out, then with one button, the UNDO button you can un-pencil out all of those lines.  You can also just click those individual lines again to un-pencil them out as mentioned previously.

While viewing this display of past outings, you can also toggle whether or not you wish to USE VARIANTS.  Notice that applying variants will change the TIME (Variant Adjusted Run Time "VART//Winning Time "WTIME") values on the past performances.  If you do try to use the variants and nothing changes for the speed, then you might have to Manage Variants.

Finally as noted so many times, the RIGHT MOUSE BUTTON is used to exit a popup such as that in Figure 2.  You can also use the ESCAPE keyboard key to exit a popup.  When you do, the Standard Handicapping Method display will appear once again.  You might also notice that when a popup appears, the Menu Bar is not available until you exit the popup and return to the handicapping method.  In general the menu bar is never available unless you are looking at a handicapping method display.  Return to the handicapping display if you have not already done so.

Selecting Races

Near the top and to the left hand side of any handicapping method display are buttons which allow you to either go forward or backward to handicap races within the day's program, or to directly select any race within that program.  Move your mouse cursor any of the 3 button targets (which include colored arrows pointing right and left and the middle button labeled "Select Race") - See Figure 3.

Figure 3 - Cursor on the "SELECT RACE" Button

Setting up the Standard Handicapping Method

In order to change the way in which this method (and other methods work) the user may change inputs to the actual method.  For example, the Standard Method only considers X number of prior races when calculating how good a particular contender is.  That number can be changed by clicking on the "# RACES" button.  Try clicking on that button.  A popup will appear and you can select a number of races by clicking on selections on that popup.  After selecting the number of races, click the RIGHT MOUSE BUTTON to accept that number.

In addition to changing the number of races, the user may also select SCHOOLING RACES to be included or excluded, TROUBLED races may also be included or excluded. and races run at other race courses may be included or excluded using the SHIPPERS button.  These features are shown by the cursor in Figure 4.

Figure 4 - Cursor shows other Settings (Schooling/Trouble/Shippers)

Also included as a setting is the PPP value.  This is the Post Position Preference or PPP setting.  If set to 7 or 8, then this feature has no effect on the method.  Otherwise, the number entered is used to select only historical races in which the dog ran in a post that is different from today's post position by that value for shown for PPP.  For example, if PPP is set to 2 and Dog 1 had a race in which it ran in post position 4 or higher, then those races would not be used because Post 4 - Post 1 = 3 which is greater than 2 the selected PPP value.   The idea of PPP is to find out how a particular dog ran from this post in the past compared to how other dogs have run.  Obviously this feature will be more valuable the more races the dogs in today's race have run.

Handicapping Style

Selecting "HANDICAPPING STYLE" causes the popup shown in Figure 5 to appear.

Figure 5 - Selecting Handicapping Style/Depth/Track Ratio

The Handicapping Style popup includes not only the ability for you to directly access another handicapping method, but also allows you to enter "Depth Settings" and to enable or disable the use of "Track Ratios".  Simply select the HELP button on this popup to learn how to use this display.  Click on the RIGHT MOUSE BUTTON to exit this popup after making any changes desired.

Reviewing Race Results

After a race program is run, and typically by the next morning, QuickDog will download a matching race chart and import the information (order of finish/comments/payoffs) found in that chart into the QuickDog program.  This information will then appear in the large box at the bottom of a handicapping display.  Notice the Win/Place/Show information in Figure 5 in the bottom right portion of the display.  Post Time odds are shown for each dog, and you can see payoffs for some exotic wagers related to this race in particular.  QuickDog doesn't show payoffs other than those which are directly related to the race being shown.  For instance the Daily Double is never shown as this is related to 2 races.  Also, if the race hasn't been run yet, and you are handicapping it, you will notice the odds are the morning line odds of the race (if available).

If the race has been run, as it has in this case, additional information on the result can be obtained by clicking the Left Mouse Button anywhere on this large button at the bottom of the display.  A display such as that shown in Figure 6 will appear.

Figure 6 - More Results Chart Information

You can quickly see that the dogs are listed in order of finish along with the race comments and in parenthesis are the Morning Line Odds.  At the bottom of this popup are payoffs and the box wager you would have had to bet in order to win.   These wager are colored coded to indicate - WHITE (you would have lost money) and YELLOW (you would have made money) and assumes the cost of the associated wager would have been based on the BASE WAGER costs shown below.  If these base wager amounts are wrong, then you should change them using the buttons shown.

What is a Base Wager Amount?

When QuickDog reads a race chart, it will import payoffs for the exotic wager such as exacta and trifecta for each race.  As it turns out race chart writers might show different payoff amounts in different races for the same type of wager.  For example, you might see in one race that a $1 Trifecta pays $100, but in the next race, it is shown as a Trifecta and it pays $275.  The question is, what's the difference between a $1 Trifecta and a Trifecta?  The difference is in the amount of the base wager on which the payout amount is based.

QuickDog will only record one figure as the payoff amount for a Trifecta Wager.  There is no such thing in QuickDog as a $1 trifecta, or $3 Trifecta, or even a 10 cent Superfecta and yet these are the payoffs shown in the race chart.  So, what does QuickDog do with the payoffs?  

QuickDog assumes that you have correctly filled in the values for the BASE WAGER AMOUNTS.  In other words QuickDog assumes that even if the program says 10 Cent Superfecta, if the user says the BASE WAGER is $2, then that payoff is multiplied by 20 to find out what a $2 Superfecta would be paid.  If the base wager input for the Trifecta is $2, then the $1 payout shown in the chart is multiplied by 2 and that resulting value is shown as the actual payout.  So, keep in mind that what you see listed in a race program might be different than the amount shown in QuickDog.  When it is different bear in mind that QuickDog is recording the value so that it can be compared to all the other payoff amounts for that type of wager.

When entering BASE WAGER amounts you must know what the maximum payoff figure shown in the race chart is based on.  Typically these are $2 wagers, but this can be different from track to track.  For example, one track might require you to wager $3 for each Trifecta combination.  If so then for that track, the Base Wager would be $3 as the payoff shown in the race chart for a "Trifecta" would be based on a $3 wager.  Do not be confused and feel that the base wager should be $1 because you see "$1 Trifecta" in the race chart.  

Making sure base wagers are correct is very important if you wish to test methods using historic data to find out your "return on investment" (ROI) for a particular wager.  We recommend that instead of using ROI, you simply use the WIN PERCENTAGE.  This makes it easier and more precise in that no mistakes involving BASE DATA will affect your results.  If a particular method wins a significant number of races, then you can always "cherry pick" races which you feel may be more profitable.

What Information is shown in Other Handicapping Methods?

For the most part, every handicapping method will display the same types of options as the Standard Method and we've just covered these options.  Explanations of these options will only be covered in this section of the User's Guide.  If another method has additional options then those will be covered in that section.  Typically what you will see if you select the user's guide section for another method is simply a description of the calculations performed by that method and a reference to this section.

And that's just how this section will end - with a description of the calculations used in the Standard Method.  Each column heading is shown in the following paragraphs.