Calculations Used for the Morgan Method of Handicapping
Figure 1 shows a sample race using the Morgan Method.
This method was designed by a QuickDog user who handicapped races professionally. This user also created the "ASystem Spreadsheet". This method is by far the most intricate of all the methods you can use, so it is important to become familiar with all the aspects and the settings for this method.
Figure 1 - The Morgan Method
For information on navigating the options on this display, please refer to this section of the user's guide - "Standard Method".
Each column's calculations are described below. Keep in mind that scoring values are further affected by the Scoring Method you select.
Number of Races
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Unlike the other methods described, in the Morgan method you may have different numbers of races for each calculated column. Recall in other methods, the same number of races was used for each column of data. To change the maximum number of races to be considered, Left Click on the value shown and change it using the calculator entry form.
PPP Button/InGrade Button
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This button is a bit different from the other buttons as it can be toggled between a PPP button and an "InGrade" button. To toggle this column, click on the SET button above this column, and then click on the "Display PPP" button until it says "NO". Then Right Click and you will see that this column has changed to list the INGRADE values. To set it back to PPP, select SET again, and then click the "Display INGRD" button to NO. This section will explain both columns. Each has its own FACTORS which can be SET.
At the heart of this method is the PPP column. By assigning a Post Position preference value (just above this button - "SET"), you will select races to be considered or thrown out while values are calculated for this column. Other factors are also set using this SET button. Each is shown on a pop up menu. You will recognize these factors as being identical to the ones shown on the main display. Keep in mind, however, these values can be either the same or different than the values shown on the main display. If you have set the values on the Main Morgan Display, then select the "Match with Major" button. Otherwise change them as you wish.
This column takes a look at the other columns shown on this method, BUT ONLY CALCULATES these values for races within + or - post positions of today's race for a particular dog. In other words is a dog's chances improved by where this dog is running today?
Factors considered within this column are:
1) Break 2) Early Speed (1/8th) 3) Stretch Speed 4) Finish Speed 5) Gain 6) Form 7) Speed 8) Best Speed 9) TRB% 10) WPS%
Each of these columns is explained below. To see their values as each relates to the PPP value, simply set the PPP value (next to the HANDICAPPING STYLE button) to the same value as the PPP value for the PPP COLUMN.
You may weight this factor as it relates to a dog's overall score by selecting the PPP button and entering a multiplier. Entering a zero will disable this column.
IN GRADE - In grade is similar to PPP except the filter is that all races considered for any dog must be in the grade for this race. In other words, if today's race is Class A, then only races that the dog has run in Class A will be considered. PPP is not considered in the IN GRADE computation. And IN GRADE is not considered in the PPP computation. Also, the FINISH SPEED is not included in the INGRADE computation.
Break Button
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Break is calculated by averaging the past races of a dog's past performance. "Troubled" or "Schooling" races are either included or ignored based on whether or not these types of races are included.
To compute Break, the software averages the "first call" position for each race. For example, if the dog breaks 1st, 3rd and 5th in three races, the average break would be 3 (1+3+5 divided by 3). This average is shown in the BREAK column. For the RANK, however, each dog is then given a score of 1-8 (1 for the best break, 8 for the worst).
1/8th Button
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This is early speed and is calculated the same was as "BREAK" is except that the "eighth" call is used.
STR Button
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STR is calculated the same was as BREAK and 1/8th except that the stretch call is used.
FIN Button (Toggle by selecting the PICK button above STR)
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FIN is calculated the same was as BREAK and 1/8th except that the Finish call is used.
GAIN
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Gain is a combination of values calculated in the STANDARD METHOD for break, early speed, and late speed columns. Each of these measures is then multiplied by a user-entered value. Finally the average of the sum of these 3 values is obtained. To set these multiplication factors click on the FACT button above this column. You should come up with a total value of 100 (percent) for these 3 factors, however, this is not necessary. The final sum will be divided by the total sum of these factors to yield the average value. In other words, if the total is 100, the measures will be added together and that total will be divided by 100.
FORM
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FORM is a similar to GAIN except that "vertical" calculations are made for a dog's past outings rather than "horizontal" calculations, as is the case for GAIN. If you start with the dogs most recent outing, take this break position, call it T1, and the break position of the next to last outing, call it t0. Form is (t0 - t1). This value, if positive, indicates the dog broke better. Now, doing this for each of the past races produces a total score. This same calculation is made for the 1/8 call, and the stretch call. Like GAIN, each is multiplied by a factor you supply by clicking on the FACT button above the FORM column. Finally this sum is averaged, as was the case with GAIN. The higher this average, the better this dog has performed over time from the past up until today's race.
CLASS (CLS)
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This column tells you whether a dog is dropping in grade for this race or moving up or staying in the same grade. Depending on whether a dog is going up or down in grade will affect the BREAK, ESPD and LSPD columns. How? Each will be multiplied by the GRADE factor (select the FACT button above this column to view these settings). The FACT menu will show multipliers that are used to calculate BREAK, 1/8th, STRETCH numbers. For example, if a dog is dropping in class, you might figure his numbers for BREAK, 1/8th, and STRETCH should be improved because he is running in INFERIOR company today, so you set this factor to LESS than 1.0. Doing so will improve the dog's ratings in the AFFECT COLUMNS (see above for the columns affected)
By the same token, if the dog is moving up, you might want to worsen those measures, because the dog is now running in stronger company, by using a factor GREATER than 1.0. For the Morgan Method, double grade drops are also considered, and you may specify multipliers for that condition too.
Note that to see double drops, you must specify the number of races that QuickDog may look at to determine both single and double drops.
SCHL races are skipped and don't count in this number of races to seek for grade changes.
YOU MAY DISABLE THE ABOVE FEATURE BY CLICKING ON THE "CLS" button until the ASTERISK disappears.
CLASS (CLS) - Using CLASS as another MEASURE of the Dog's abilities
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This same column's results can also be used to help figure a dog's overall ability and can be used in the SCORE of each dog. If you wish this to be done, assign a value to the WEIGHTING FACTOR for this COLUMN which is GREATER THAN 1.0. So, then, this column works in two ways, the first, as stated above in the CLASS (CLS) description, and the second to contribute to final score. To score this column, QuickDog simply ranks the dogs from 1 to 8, 1 being the best class figure (lowest score), and 8 being the worst. This is the same ranking done in the other columns. See below for how CLASS IS COMPUTED in the MORGAN Method and other methods.
In this field you'll see either UP, DOWN, DBLD, DBLU, or a blank space. Meanings for each are given below.
UP - the dog is moving up in class since his last race. DOWN - the dog is moving down in class since his last race. DBLD - the dog is dropping 2 or more grades. DBLU - the dog is moving up 2 or more grades. blank - the dog is running in the same class today as in his previous class and the distance is the same as well.
How QuickDog Calculates Class for the Morgan Method
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QuickDog uses both the GRADE of the dog's prior races together with the FINISH position in those races to lookup the CLASS TABLE value for each race. You can EDIT this table or create and assign your own tables using the EDIT MENU BAR item - "CLASS TABLE"
QuickDog's CLASS TABLE, "CLASS.TBL" file awards points as follows. Using a dogs past performance lines, each prior race is given a score of GRADE of Race value PLUS (finish position - 1). If you examine this table, then you will see that an AA race is valued at 0, an A race at 8, B race at 16, etc., see the CLASS TABLE for this information.
For example, if a dog WON its last race in Grade B, its score for that race would be 16. If it placed 3rd in Grade C, that score would be 24 + 3 - 1 = 26.
Based on your selection of how many races to average using this score method, QuickDog produces an average GRADE SCORE. This GRADE score is then looked at to see which GRADE range the score falls into. For example, if the final average score is 19, then this falls between Grade B = 16 and Grade C = 24, and the dog is rated a Grade B. This grade score is then compared to the GRADE of the race, and it is determined whether it is a single or doulble grade drop/rise.
For the Morgan Method, this GRADE SCORE is then used to select The multiplication factors mentioned. These factors are then used to adjust other column values as described above. Setting the factors to 1.0 will result in NO GRADE AFFECT.
Speed Button
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Speed is calculated by averaging the past races of a dog's past performance. "Troubled" or "Schooling" races are either included or ignored based on whether or not these types of races are included - see these options later in this document. A "troubled" race may be one in which the distance does not match the distance of today's race.
Best Time
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The dog's best time, based on this program, is shown in this column. Then a rank value is given, 1-best time to 8-worst time.
WPS Button
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The WPS column is calculated by dividing the total number of Win, Place, or Show finishes by the total number of races considered and creating a percentage. If a dog had 3 races and finished 1, 2, or 3 in everyone, then this field would show 100%. Troubled (trouble or not the same distance) and schooling races can be considered or not considered. For total overall ranking, the dogs are rated 1-best to 8-worst based on this column score. The win, place, show and starts line of the program is used. Only the first line is used.
TRB (Trouble) Button
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The TRB column is calculated by dividing the total number of troubled races by the total number of races considered and creating a percentage.
RANK Average (Appears in the lower left corner of the display)
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The rank is calculated by averaging all column values and should equal a number from 1 to 8 including decimal values.